I never would have thought I would be in a statistical forum before, but in the search for answers here I am!

Why I am here... I work in the field of Risk, specifically safety risk. I have found that when I am trying to present risk to those who need to understand and make decisions, typical methods are overly simplistic and subjective. I was speaking with a colleague who suggested that monte carlo simulation may be a way to show the range of scenarios and the probability.

In plain English that is what I would like to demonstrate. The risk of you being hit by a falling tree while at work is between X and Y and the outcome likelihood between first aid and death is A to B.

So my question is if monte carlo is the best way forward and how would I even begin to compile what I needed to run the simulation.

The things I have or could have at my disposal are...

Subjective risk assessments in a typical heat map.

Incident data for if and how often these events occur and what the outcome was.

Some human resource data such as number of people, hours worked and the like to maybe identify exposure.

Any help is much appreciated!

M